Business Planning and Forecasting Research Paper

Business Planning and Forecasting - Research Paper Example2008 48 51 21 34 i. Scatter DiagramAs the selective information describes sales for each season for a particular year, with no sign of any multiplicative or exponential jump, therefore the additive feigning should be used to analyze the data. The main reason is the progression, which is quite straight-forward, as comp atomic number 18d to multiplicative plotting, which is more than exponential, with ulterior figures of comparatively much higher(prenominal) observes.ii. Moving Average for Calculation of TrendFor the calculation of lamentable averages, the emergence is done in a way such that each seasons moving average has been metric with the data provided of the past 3 years. The moving averages for each season are as follows.iii. Seasonal IndicesYear draw offOriginal Values(Y)4 Figures Moving good4 Figures Moving Average2 Figures Moving Total2 Figures Moving Average(T) Ratio-to-Moving Average(%)(Y)/ (T)*100 (Seas onal Indices)200614625331843315037.520071521563976.538.2547.0588235324715037.576.538.2586.27450983201523875.537.75137.748344443915839.577.538.75121.2903226200814815438.5783951.2820512825115839.5783910032115939.7579.2539.625121.135646743415438.578.2539.125130.3514377iv. Trend ExtensionThe trend for 2009 is calculated by first formulating a regression formula for the new values using the accustomed data. The methodological analysis used is the Method of Least Squares, as followsQuarter(X)Original...The main reason is the progression, which is quite straight-forward, as compared to multiplicative plotting, which is more exponential, with later figures of comparatively much higher values.For the calculation of moving averages, the process is done in a way such that each seasons moving average has been calculated with the data provided of the past 3 years. The moving averages for each season are as follows.The initial scatter plot suggested that the autumn sales are the lowest of all th e seasons. Also when we calculated the moving averages the result came that the seasonal variations in sales are smothered in the overall run. On this base the new sales figures for 2009 were calculated which were as given above.When the real values of the sales of the three brothers are seen and compared, taking one year at a time, then its is observed that when we take 2006 as a base year, we find that the sales figures for Dick was higher than his two brothers. Also Ricks sales were better than Micks, although the actual figures are lower. Micks sales real values bring in been going continuously down, while those of Ricks have gone down only in 2008. For Dick, the real value of sales has been going up continuously.